Analisis mediasi foreign direct investment pada pengaruh information and communication technology ICT service exports dan trade openness terhadap pertumbuhan ekonomi Indonesia periode 2015-2025

INDONESIA:

Pertumbuhan ekonomi merupakan indikator penting dalam menilai keberhasilan pembangunan suatu negara. Dalam era digital dan globalisasi,
Information and Communication Technology (ICT) Service Exports, Trade Openness, dan Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) menjadi faktor yang diduga berperan dalam mendorong pertumbuhan ekonomi. Namun, hasil penelitian terdahulu menunjukkan temuan yang beragam terkait hubungan antarvariabel tersebut. Oleh karena itu, penelitian ini bertujuan untuk menganalisis pengaruh ICT Service Exports dan Trade Openness terhadap pertumbuhan ekonomi Indonesia serta menguji peran Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) sebagai variabel mediasi pada periode 2015–2025. Penelitian ini menggunakan pendekatan kuantitatif dengan jenis penelitian eksplanatori. Data yang digunakan merupakan data sekunder periode 2015–2025 yang diperoleh dari World Bank. Analisis data dilakukan menggunakan metode analisis jalur (path analysis) dengan bantuan aplikasi EViews 12. Variabel penelitian terdiri atas ICT Service Exports dan Trade Openness sebagai variabel independen, Pertumbuhan Ekonomi sebagai variabel dependen, serta Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) sebagai variabel mediasi.

Hasil penelitian menunjukkan bahwa ICT Service Exports berpengaruh
signifikan dengan arah negatif terhadap pertumbuhan ekonomi, sedangkan Trade Openness berpengaruh positif dan signifikan terhadap pertumbuhan ekonomi. ICT Service Exports tidak berpengaruh signifikan terhadap FDI, sementara Trade Openness berpengaruh positif dan signifikan terhadap FDI. Selain itu, FDI berpengaruh positif dan signifikan terhadap pertumbuhan ekonomi. Hasil uji mediasi menunjukkan bahwa FDI tidak mampu memediasi pengaruh ICT Service Exports terhadap pertumbuhan ekonomi, tetapi mampu memediasi pengaruh Trade Openness terhadap pertumbuhan ekonomi secara positif. Temuan ini menunjukkan bahwa keterbukaan perdagangan dan investasi asing memiliki peran penting dalam mendorong pertumbuhan ekonomi Indonesia.

ENGLISH:

Economic growth is an important indicator for assessing a country's development performance. In the era of digitalization and globalization,
Information and Communication Technology (ICT) Service Exports, Trade Openness, and Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) are considered key factors that may contribute to economic growth. However, previous studies have produced mixed findings regarding the relationships among these variables. Therefore, this study aims to analyze the effects of ICT Service Exports and Trade Openness on Indonesia's economic growth and to examine the mediating role of Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) during the period 2015–2025.

This study employs a quantitative approach with an explanatory research design. The data used are secondary data obtained from the World Bank covering the period 2015–2025. Data analysis was conducted using path analysis with the assistance of EViews 12 software. The research variables consist of ICT Service Exports and Trade Openness as independent variables, Economic Growth as the dependent variable, and Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) as the mediating variable.

The results indicate that ICT Service Exports have a significant negative effect on economic growth, while Trade Openness has a positive and significant effect on economic growth. ICT Service Exports do not have a significant effect on FDI, whereas Trade Openness has a positive and significant effect on FDI. Furthermore, FDI has a positive and significant effect on economic growth. The mediation analysis reveals that FDI is unable to mediate the effect of ICT Service Exports on economic growth but successfully mediates the effect of Trade Openness on economic growth. These findings suggest that trade openness and foreign investment play important roles in promoting Indonesia's economic growth