Pengaruh makroekonomi terhadap profitabilitas bank syariah global dengan non performing financing sebagai variabel moderasi

INDONESIA:

Penelitian ini bertujuan menganalisis pengaruh inflasi, suku bunga, kurs,GDP Growth, dan tingkat pengangguran terhadap Return On Assets (ROA) bank syariah global serta menguji peran Non Performing Financing (NPF) sebagai variabel moderasi. Penelitian menggunakan pendekatan kuantitatif dengan data sekunder dari World Bank, IMF, dan laporan keuangan tahunan 58 bank syariah global periode 2020-2025. Analisis dilakukan menggunakan regresi data panel dengan pendekatan Moderated Regression Analysis (MRA) dan Random Effect Model (REM) sebagai model terbaik. Hasil penelitian menunjukkan bahwa inflasi berpengaruh positif terhadap ROA, suku bunga berpengaruh negatif signifikan, sedangkan kurs dan GDP Growth berpengaruh positif signifikan terhadap ROA. Sementara itu, tingkat pengangguran dan NPF tidak berpengaruh signifikan
terhadap ROA. Pengujian moderasi menunjukkan bahwa NPF hanya mampu memoderasi hubungan kurs terhadap ROA, sedangkan pada hubungan inflasi, suku bunga, GDP Growth, dan tingkat pengangguran terhadap ROA tidak ditemukan efek moderasi. Selain itu, seluruh variabel penelitian secara simultan berpengaruh terhadap ROA bank syariah global.

ENGLISH:

This study aims to analyze the effects of inflation, interest rates, exchange rates, GDP growth, and unemployment rates on the Return on Assets (ROA) of global Islamic banks, while also examining the moderating role of Non-Performing Financing (NPF). A quantitative approach was employed using secondary data obtained from the World Bank, the International Monetary Fund (IMF), and the annual reports of 58 global Islamic banks during the 2020–2025 period. The data were analyzed using panel data regression with the Moderated Regression Analysis (MRA) approach, and the Random Effect Model (REM) was selected as the most appropriate estimation model. The findings indicate that inflation has a positive effect on ROA, interest rates have a significant negative effect, whereas exchange rates and GDP growth have significant positive effects on ROA. Meanwhile, unemployment rates and NPF do not significantly affect ROA. The moderation analysis reveals that NPF only moderates the relationship between exchange rates
and ROA, whereas no moderating effect is found in the relationships between inflation, interest rates, GDP growth, unemployment rates, and ROA. Furthermore, all variables included in the model jointly have a significant effect on the profitability of global Islamic banks.